SWOD48
SPC AC 090850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW REGIME...MOST OF
WHICH WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ERN STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT BY DAY 6 OR 7 A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR TO RETURN NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS REGARDING HOW THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE. WHILE
SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 6-7...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE TROUGH PRECLUDES AN
OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 11/09/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment