SWODY1
SPC AC 100058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO/CONVECTIVE WIND PROBABILITIES MAINLY FOR
LATER TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH THE ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM
IDA...REFERENCE NHC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR LATEST DETAILS. IN SPITE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES/AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...00Z
OBSERVED RAOBS FROM NEW ORLEANS/TALLAHASSEE CONTINUE TO REFLECT A
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS INLAND AHEAD OF IDA...ALTHOUGH A MORE
MOISTURE-RICH MARITIME AIRMASS MAY REACH COASTAL PORTIONS OF AL/FL
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. RISK FOR A TORNADO/CONVECTIVE
WIND CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND OF IDA/LIMITED OUTER BAND CONVECTION AND AN
INITIALLY STABLE INLAND AIRMASS ALL IMPLY SUCH A THREAT WILL REMAIN
LOW.
...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. OTHER TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE 00Z
OBSERVED RAOB FROM UIL REFLECTED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE/STEEP LAPSE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL FRONTAL BAND MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BOTH CASES...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
..GUYER.. 11/10/2009
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