SWODY2
SPC AC 090556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL THROUGH NERN GULF COASTAL REGION...
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE NWD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SUPPORTED BY GRADIENT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT MAKES LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EWD. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS
FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.
ENELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STABLE AIR INLAND WHERE
THE LARGEST 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO IDA MOVING
ONSHORE. GIVEN THE WARM CORE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL BE NEEDED TO DEVELOP SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR DEEPER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND SUPERCELL THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE RICHER MOISTURE MAY NOT ADVECT ONSHORE UNTIL THE
CENTER IS WELL INLAND WITH 70S DEWPOINTS LIKELY TRAILING THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. NET RESULT IS THAT THE LARGER HODOGRAPHS
MAY NOT BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. WHILE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 11/09/2009
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