SWODY1
SPC AC 090551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CANADA
AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO TUESDAY. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE IDA
TOWARD THE GULF COAST TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ULTIMATELY PHASE
WITH THE REMNANT LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING
FROM EAST TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE IDA WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST GULF COAST TONIGHT...REFERENCE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS. INITIALLY...ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IDA...STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE TRAJECTORIES VIA THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR INLAND UNTIL IDA APPROACHES LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL INTRODUCE LOW TORNADO/CONVECTIVE WIND
PROBABILITIES MAINLY FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST IN TANDEM WITH
THE APPROACH OF IDA. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POTENTIAL
FOR LIMITED OUTER BAND DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MODEST INLAND
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IDA WILL KEEP THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR TORNADOES/CONVECTIVE WIND LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
LEAD PORTION OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BAND WILL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES/WEAK BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN/COASTAL RANGES...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL EVEN POSSIBLE.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY PRIOR TO SUNSET ALONG WEAKENING
NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF MO/KS TO OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE. IN SPITE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT...WEAKENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LIMITED COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF TSTMS OVERALL.
..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 11/09/2009
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