SWODY1
SPC AC 091942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES/ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS WITH CONVECTION
REMAINS LARGELY CONTINGENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...THE
POTENTIAL FOR WHICH APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE EVEN OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IDA
MIGRATES INLAND. THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHERE
DAYTIME HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S/ LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINT. THESE VALUES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER THAN EARLIER
PROGGED...CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPER CONVECTION WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCING LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...APPEAR TO REMAIN FOCUSED JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THIS IS WHERE STRONGER
MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BASED WITHIN AN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.
..KERR/COOK.. 11/09/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009/
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR T.S. IDA CONTINUES TO PLACE WHAT WILL BE LEFT
OF IDA/S SURFACE CENTER NEAR MOB AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COOLER
WATER. /REFERENCE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TODAY./ SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES PW DATA INDICATE GRADUAL
MOISTENING ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
SLOWLY WWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOME DESTABILIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION ROTATING ONSHORE. DESPITE IDA LOSING SOME
STRUCTURE TODAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS 50+ KT ELY H85 JET DEVELOPS NWD. THIS COULD YIELD A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...MAINLY TONIGHT.
...PACIFIC NW...
COLD POCKET OF MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW
APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN AREA OF OPEN
CELL CUMULUS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ALONG
THE WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
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