SWODY2
SPC AC 141643
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/S TX...
UPR LOW DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL TURN E AND TRANSLATE ACROSS S
TX FRIDAY. A LEE CYCLONE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OVER THE CNTRL
GLFMEX BASIN BY FRIDAY AFTN. TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TO ABOVE AN INCH IN DEEP S TX AND THE LWR/MIDDLE TX CST.
MODEST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PROFILES WILL DRIVE A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/S TX TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN. OVERALL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MITIGATED BY CLOUDS
AND MODEST QUALITY OF THE GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND COULD SUPPORT A STRONGER TSTM OR TWO
ACROSS FAR S TX AND THE SCNTRL TX GULF CST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE
WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT AND/OR HAIL.
WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH STRONGER STORMS
FAVORING MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY WELL OFFSHORE.
AS THE CNTRL GLFMEX SFC LOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AFTN...THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS S TX WILL ACHIEVE AN INCREASING OFFSHORE COMPONENT. AT
THAT TIME...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRYING WILL
COMMENCE WITH A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN TSTM RISKS.
..RACY.. 01/14/2010
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