DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 142000
SWODY1
SPC AC 141959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

.CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST...

EXPANDED GEN TSTM PROBABILITIES NW TO COVER FAR W TX AND INTO SRN NM
AND EXTREME SERN AZ.

STEEP LAPSE RATES /500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20 DEG C/ ALONG
NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER COMBINED
WITH MOISTENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO PRODUCE ISOLD TSTMS. CONVECTION WAS
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS S
TX WITH TSTM PROBABILITIES INCREASING LATER TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF
FCST IS UNCHANGED.

..RACY.. 01/14/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010/

...S TX...
GIVEN THE 160KT NWLY JET MAX NOW LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THE UPPER LOW
SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD WELL INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BY 12Z
FRI. THE RETURN OF A GREATLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS FROM WRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO TX IS WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

WHILE POTENTIAL WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED
DUE TO ORIGIN OF AIR MASS...THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...S TX...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z.

WITH THE AID OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE VERY STRONG UPPER JET ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING MEXICO
TROUGH...THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS EXTREME S TX
WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST BY TONIGHT.
WITH AN 850MB JET OF 30-35KT...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
OFFSHORE S TX AS WELL AS BRIEF TORNADOS/FUNNELS INLAND.

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