SWODY1
SPC AC 150059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST THU JAN 14 2010
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS CONUS...RELATED
LARGELY TO WELL-DEFINED LOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS ERN SONORA/WRN
CHIHUAHUA REGION. BY END OF PERIOD...BROAD CYCLONE SHOULD COVER
MOST OF NRN/CENTRAL MEX...ITS NRN FRINGES COVERING RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REGION OF TX.
AT SFC...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED AT 00Z OVER
CENTRAL-NERN MEX. CONTINUING LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED
WITH APCH OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO MORE
WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW OVER OR JUST S OF LOWER VALLEY REGION BY
12Z...WITH WARM FRONT ENEWD/NEWD ACROSS LOWER TX COAST THEN EWD OVER
NWRN GULF.
...S TX...
SOME TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SVR THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO
MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AMIDST SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCEL...FOR SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F. COMBINATION OF
MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER FLOW...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
PROXIMITY TO MOST-MODIFIED AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND FARTHER
S ACROSS MEX COASTAL PLAIN. ACCORDINGLY...SUPERCELL HAS BEEN
EVIDENT WELL OFFSHORE BRO DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH MORE
LINEAR/MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES OVER COAST AND INLAND. PRIND
KINEMATIC PROFILES ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME...AND RELATED
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH -- WILL YIELD 0-1 KM SRH 150-250
J/KG. EXPECT ONGOING 30 KT LLJ OVER BRO TO CURVE CYCLONICALLY
INLAND AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN BRO/CRP...ATOP MORE ELY SFC
FLOW. HOWEVER...LACK OF MORE ROBUST MIDLEVEL WINDS ATOP LLJ WILL
RESULT IN WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR -- I.E. LESS THAN 30 KT IN MOST
RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS NEGATIVE SHEAR
VALUES FROM LLJ THROUGH MIDLEVELS.
..EDWARDS.. 01/15/2010
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