SWODY2
SPC AC 140541
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST WED JAN 13 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY...WITH A VERY STRONG WESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL JET NOSING AROUND A FLATTENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. REMNANTS OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED
REGIME CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A
PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. ONE WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO APPROACH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PRIMARY IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGE-SCALE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION...IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
MEXICAN COASTAL AREAS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE...THOUGH GENERALLY WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TEXAS COAST. SUBSTANTIAL VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY...WITHIN THE SLOWLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
...WESTERN GULF COAST...
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE
LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK
TO MODEST NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
JUST BEGINS TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS.
HOWEVER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL COOLING...AND PERHAPS STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...COULD ENHANCE STORMS SOMEWHAT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...MAINLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND IN COASTAL WATERS...BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON AN INCREASING OFFSHORE COMPONENT...AND
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION BY MID DAY.
..KERR.. 01/14/2010
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