DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140535
SWODY1
SPC AC 140533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
14/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS FEATURED EXTENSIVE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OVER
CENTRAL CONUS ASSOCIATED NOT JUST WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES OVER
NRN PLAINS...TX AND AZ...BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT LED BY AZ
PERTURBATION. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO DIG SEWD FROM AZ ACROSS NWRN
MEX...LEADING TO BROAD MID-UPPER CYCLONE COVERING MOST OF NRN MEX
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OF TX DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD.
AT SFC...PERSISTENT LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FCST OVER NERN
MEX...ALONG ERN RIM OF SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND RELATED RANGES SW
OF DRT-MFE CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SFC LOW NEAR LRD BY
15/12Z...WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER TX COAST.

...S TX...
MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OFFSHORE AND OVER ERN MEX RESPECTIVELY...ALTHOUGH IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS INVOF PADRE ISLAND...LOWEST RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
LAGUNA MADRE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING GUST OR TORNADO EXISTS
OVER THESE AREAS...PRIMARILY AFTER ABOUT 15/06Z...HOWEVER ORGANIZED
SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
ATTM.

PORTIONS DEEP S TX MAY EXPERIENCE JUXTAPOSITION OF ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL BE MORE COMMON OFFSHORE WITH AT LEAST MRGL LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY INLAND. MODIFIED WRF AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH SFC TEMPS AOA
MID-60S F AND DEW POINTS LOW 60S...WHICH WILL BE ON UPPER END OF
LIKELY RANGE FOR MARINE MODIFICATION OF NARROW CORRIDOR OF NEAR-SFC
TRAJECTORIES FROM WRN OPEN GULF. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE
500-1000 J/KG ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST S OF CRP...AND AROUND 500 J/KG
INLAND. GEOMETRY OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP MIDLEVEL WINDS FROM
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...LIMITING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO
BELOW 30 KT IN MOST FCST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE CASTING
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SVR EVENT.
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
MAINLY OFFSHORE...BUT WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INLAND LATE IN
PERIOD.

..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2010

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