SWODY2
SPC AC 221725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN GA/CAROLINAS/SRN VA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S F WITH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOPING
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS.
AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE
DAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM GA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z
FRIDAY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT
WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WET DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW AT MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN SEABOARD...THE
THREAT SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL UPON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT
OCCURS.
..BROYLES.. 09/22/2011
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