SWODY1
SPC AC 221246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PARADE OF MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ABOUT THE WRN GRTLKS
UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DEEPENING OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TDY. TO THE E...SMALLER
SCALE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE NEWD FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE NERN STATES. AT THE SFC...THE CDFNT TIED TO THE PRIMARY
UPR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH NY AND THE CNTRL APLCN
REGION. WRN EXTENT OF SAME FRONT WILL SURGE FASTER INTO THE LWR MS
VLY AND CNTRL/SRN TX THROUGH TONIGHT.
...LWR MS VLY AND CNTRL/SRN TX..
ELEVATED NON-SVR TSTMS...DISPERSED OVER MUCH OF NW TX AND OK AT
DAYBREAK...WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARK REGIONS THIS
MORNING. EFFECTIVE CDFNT...AIDED BY MORNING OUTFLOW...WILL SURGE
INTO SCNTRL/ECNTRL TX AND LA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF SFC-BASED STORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM NWRN LA INTO SCNTRL TX...AND
FARTHER W ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SW TX MTNS AFTER 21Z.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GIVEN HEATING/STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...BUT SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS ANY UPDRAFT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW/FRONT.
...ERN STATES...
BROAD LOW/MID-LVL SWLY FETCH OF GULF/SWRN N ATLC MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CDFNT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN STATES TDY. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL TEMPER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...A
COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL AID IN FOCUSING POTENTIAL TSTMS
AMID WEAK CINH. ONE AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN APLCNS/CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WITH ANOTHER AREA ACROSS PA NWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN NY LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK. UNLESS POCKETS OF HEATING CAN EVOLVE TO BOOST
THERMAL BUOYANCY VALUES...SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE/LOW.
..RACY/COHEN.. 09/22/2011
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