SWODY1
SPC AC 230051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MIDDLE/UPPER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST MID/UPPER CLOSED
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING AROUND ITS WESTERN/ SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY...FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRENGTHENING
OF WIND FIELDS...VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
RISK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
..KERR.. 09/23/2011
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