SWODY1
SPC AC 250528
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL U.S WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HR AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE EWD ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH TIME MODIFIED MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL
RETURN NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/ERN TX...EVENTUALLY SURGING
LATE INTO ERN OK AND PORTIONS OF SERN KS/SWRN MO/AR WHERE SFC DEW
POINTS MAY RISE INTO THE 50S. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH
OF RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ FROM NRN AR/MO INTO
SERN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER DELAYED MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FAVORED ZONE
OF ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND HAIL THREAT WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AHEAD OF SFC LOW/COLD FRONT.
...NRN ROCKIES...
VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SAG SEWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. ANY
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD AID
UPDRAFT POTENTIAL DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE/WEAK BUOYANCY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE NOTED PRIMARILY DURING THE WARMER PORTIONS OF
THE DAY.
..DARROW.. 02/25/2009
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