SWODY2
SPC AC 250544
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND MIDWEST...
...MID-SOUTH AND MIDWEST...
MID-LVL DISTURBANCE APCHG THE PAC NW/NRN CA CST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/MS VLY ON THU AS
IT PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE
QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY BY 12Z FRI. ASSOCD SFC
LOW OVER THE MO VLY EARLY THU WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND
INTO NRN IND/SRN LWR MI BY LATE THU NIGHT. TRAILING THE LOW...A
CDFNT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE PLNS AND INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-SOUTH
BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NWD FROM THE SRN
PLNS INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. BY THU AFTN...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S IN IND/IL TO NEAR 60 DEG F IN
THE MID-SOUTH. A FAIRLY STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY
RESIDE WELL EAST INTO THE OH/TN VLYS ATOP THIS MSTR...SUGGESTING
THAT SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED UNTIL
MID-LATE AFTN WHEN STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVES. FIRST
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG
THE FRONTAL INTERFACE...THEN QUICKLY MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
STORMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD INTO PARTS OF MO/AR DURING THE
EVE INTO STRONGER CINH. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...45-50
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LINEAR FORCING WILL FAVOR A
FORCED LINE OF STORMS WITH POSSIBLE LEWPS/BOWS GIVING DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.
NRN EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ACROSS IND/OH AS
STORMS OUTRUN THE STRONGER LLVL THETA-E AXIS THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...
TSTMS MAY MAINTAIN/GROW STRONGER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SKIRT THE MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY.
..RACY.. 02/25/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment