SWODY1
SPC AC 251618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL BE A NRN STREAM LOW NEAR THE WA
COAST...AND A SRN STREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE FROM NRN CA TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATES...MID LEVEL MOISTENING...AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD
BREAKS WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NRN UT INTO WY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NRN CA TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE NRN CA TROUGH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN NWD TRANSPORT OF THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NW
GULF/E TX. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IN TX AND A STRONG
RESULTANT CAP. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER
TONIGHT /03-12Z/ AS THE SRN STREAM TROUGH EMERGES OVER NEB/SD WHERE
DCVA AND WAA WILL COMBINE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE PROFILES...AND
ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP AND THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ FROM
TX/OK INTO MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/WAA WILL BE FOCUSED. THE
THREAT FOR HAIL WITH STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MO AREA
SHOULD REMAIN SMALL BASED ON UNCERTAINTIES IN CAP STRENGTH AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
..THOMPSON.. 02/25/2009
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