SWODY1
SPC AC 251935
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PACIFIC NW ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS
VALLEY...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA AND NV AS OF 19Z WILL
PROGRESS EWD WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL AIRSTREAM INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
BY THU MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NOW DEVELOPING
OVER ID WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD ALONG
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE
CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THE COMBINATION OF
TERRAIN EFFECTS AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED IMPULSES SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM NERN NV/SRN ID EWD INTO WY.
TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH EML PLUME ADVECTING
EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION ALONG/N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE MID INTO
LOWER MO VALLEY. DCVA IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES EMERGING FROM
THE CNTRL ROCKIES COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS /PRIMARILY AFTER
26/03Z/ WITHIN THIS ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
..MEAD.. 02/25/2009
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