SWODY1
SPC AC 311558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OZARKS/ERN PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
UPPER LOW HAS CLOSED OFF S OF MKC THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SSEWD INTO CENTRAL AR BY THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MS 12Z SAT.
COMBINATION OF ASCENT AHEAD OF LOW COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WAS SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG CONVECTION THIS AM ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SERN KS TO CENTRAL OK WILL MOVE SEWD AHEAD OF
UPPER SYSTEM AND PROVIDE A FOCUS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON POTENTIAL OF
SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION. PRONOUNCED VEERING SHEAR PROFILES
WRN QUAD OF UPPER LOW RESULTS IN 40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE
ONLY LIMITATION OF AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IS THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MLCAPES GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. WHILE HAIL
WILL STILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG UPDRAFT GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND COLD AIR ALOFT THRU THIS EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITED THREAT. HOWEVER WILL CONSIDER AN
UPGRADE THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONGER HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP THAN NOW EXPECTED.
..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 10/31/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment