SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311702
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-311830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK/NWRN AR/SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 311702Z - 311830Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MODESTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THIS REGION...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ATTM...WITHIN THE SERN QUADRANT OF A
COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SWD ALONG THE SERN KS/SWRN MO BORDER.
WHILE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS NIL ATTM...ELEVATED CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS...WITH
A FEW REPORTS OF MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S OVER PARTS OF E CENTRAL OK AND ADJACENT WRN AR...ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON HEATING -- PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
-- COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. GIVEN THIS...AND WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS COULD EVOLVE WITH
LOCALLY-SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
HAIL...INCREASED STORM COVERAGE -- AND THUS A MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL
THREAT -- COULD EVENTUALLY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..GOSS.. 10/31/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 37459283 37449227 36749212 35949213 35249281 34729399
34739557 35109608 35759598 36349523 36929435 37459283
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