SWODY1
SPC AC 310436
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID-LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
OWING TO EXTENTION OF SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE WRN
GULF...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH 50S F
DEWPOINTS OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COMPACT SEWD
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SPREAD OVER A PORTION OF THE MOIST
AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO
800 J/KG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM PARTS
OF SERN KS...NERN OK INTO WRN MO. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE
BASED. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH -19C AT
700 MB COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS. LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10%.
..DIAL/JEWELL.. 10/31/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment