SWODY1
SPC AC 310028
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2008
VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL CA...
ASCENT AND PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ONSHORE HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CA. MODEL
POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A ZONE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
SHALLOW INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT TRENDS
SHOULD BE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.
...ERN NEB THROUGH SW IA...NERN KS AND NWRN MO...
VORT MAX OVER S CNTRL NEB WILL MOVE SE THROUGH SERN NEB AND NERN KS
TONIGHT. VIGOROUS ASCENT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP 700-400 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SPORADIC
ELEVATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AOB
10%.
...SERN AZ...
INCREASING PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD ADVECTING PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND STEEP SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH
BASED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ. HOWEVER...LIMITED
INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10%
COVERAGE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
..DIAL.. 10/31/2008
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