SWODY1
SPC AC 311246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT UPR VORT NOW OVER ERN KS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY SSE INTO
NW AR BY LATE TODAY AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE HI PLNS. THE KS/AR
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE SSE INTO LA EARLY SATURDAY AS LARGER SCALE E
PACIFIC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO THE W CST.
AT LWR LEVELS...SFC RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM E TX TO THE S ATLANTIC
CST...MINIMIZING MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS.
...OZARKS/ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF KS UPR VORT...
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT REGENERATIVE BANDS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION/TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVE. THE CENTROID OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY S FROM MO INTO NRN/WRN AR BY EVE. THE 12Z SGF
RAOB SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE UP TO
1000 J PER KG/ MAY EXIST TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME
STORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS LATER TODAY...
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS
IN NE OK/NW AR THAT...MAINLY THROUGH EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES...COULD
YIELD A STRONG GUST OR TWO. ON THE WHOLE...HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER E PACIFIC SYSTEM AND
NOW MOVING NE ACROSS NRN CA SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO NRN ID BY EVE.
LAPSE RATES WITHIN ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROUGH MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF GREATER SFC
HEATING. SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE AND STORM COVERAGE.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/31/2008
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