SWOD48
SPC AC 310848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...PREDICTABILITY IS STILL TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A SEVERE
THREAT AREA...
LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...IN THE WAKE
OF A DEPARTING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
...WHEN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SIGNAL EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AS STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
PROCEEDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A
SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES
MORE LIKELY. THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY. BUT...THIS
IS COINCIDENT WITH RAPIDLY GROWING SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS
CONCERNING THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
..KERR.. 10/31/2008
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