SWODY3
SPC AC 310728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MODERATELY STRONG POLAR JET
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN A BROADLY CYCLONIC BELT
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN...BEFORE SPLITTING INTO A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE WEAKER
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ...BUT A SIGNIFICANT
EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC POLAR
JET IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MID-LEVEL COOLING
ALONG/AHEAD OF A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE. COUPLED
WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR A 50+ KT 500 MB JET
STREAK...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MUCH BEYOND A HIGHLY LOCALIZED SEVERE STORM
OR TWO.
...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
THE LINGERING LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN A STABILIZING INFLUENCE SUNDAY...MINIMIZING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PRECLUDING A
STRONG RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
..KERR.. 10/31/2008
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