SWODY2
SPC AC 311726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE
CONUS. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES. A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE A
CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST. IN THE WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY CLOSED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
...CA...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EAST-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MOVING INLAND ACROSS CA...STRONG FORCING AND
COOLING PROFILES ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE CA COASTAL AREAS
INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
...NORTHEAST TX/ADJACENT ARKLATEX...
ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH...MODEST CONVERGENCE AND
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING/MOISTURE MAY DIURNALLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND/OR THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX
VICINITY. ALTHOUGH...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE WAKE
OF A VORT MAX ADVANCING SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. TSTM POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX IS MOST FAVORABLY REFLECTED IN THE 09Z ETAKF
SREF MEMBERS...WHILE DETERMINISTIC 12Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE LIMITED WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MARGINAL
POTENTIAL/CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WILL PRELUDE ANY LOW-END TSTM
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...MIDWEST...
OTHER ISOLATED LATE PERIOD TSTMS /AFTER 06Z/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG/NORTH OF A RETURNING WARM
FRONT. HOWEVER...OVERALL TSTM PROBABILITIES APPEAR MEAGER AT THIS
TIME.
..GUYER.. 10/31/2008
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