Friday, November 9, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090523
SWODY1
SPC AC 090521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD AS
STRONG NWLY JET ALOFT DIGS SEWD INTO BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN STATES AND DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DELMARVA
REGION...WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND MT FLATTENING THE NWRN UPPER RIDGE. A SECOND PACIFIC
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WA COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHILE LOWER LATITUDE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST MOVES SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD TOWARD SRN CA.

..PACIFIC NW COAST...
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY INLAND TODAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEST OF THE
WA COAST.

..EAST TX/WRN LA AREA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF SRN/ERN TX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NEWD TODAY AS WEAK SLY/SSWLY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WILL PERMIT AREAS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. NAM APPEARS TO OVER PREDICT MAGNITUDE OF
MUCAPE AS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILE IS MODIFIED BY VERY ACTIVE BMJ
SHALLOW CONVECTION PROCESSES...AND MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY
FORECASTS FROM GFS AND SREF ETA-KF MEMBERS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

.WEISS.. 11/09/2007

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