SWOD48
SPC AC 240834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE THAT MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY BECOME A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AIDS IN EJECTING THE WELL-FORMED
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PHASING OF THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM AND THE EJECTING LOW/SHORT WAVE SHOULD PROMOTE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY DAY 5. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY DAY 6. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
WHILE DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BEYOND DAY 4...FL APPEARS TO BE THE ONE
LOCATION WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. WITH RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING
ON THE LARGE SCALE...TSTMS WILL REMAIN A DAILY POSSIBILITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG BUT
THE PROSPECT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
.CARBIN.. 10/24/2007
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