SWODY1
SPC AC 241617
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CAROLINAS/VA THIS AFTERNOON...
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER MS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TIGHT
CYCLONIC LOOP OVER MS/AL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS A NRN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BYPASSES THIS AREA TO THE N. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW INVOF N GA WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS ACROSS ERN SC AND CENTRAL NC...AND A
SEPARATE COLD FRONT SAGS SWD ACROSS VA IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN STREAM
TROUGH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM BANDS/CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM ERN SC NWD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC INTO S CENTRAL VA WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.
THE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN NC INTO SE
VA...IMMEDIATELY E OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION. HERE...BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR ARE UNLIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND THE DEPARTURE BY TONIGHT OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION TO THE MID-UPPER JET OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOB 35 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOB 100
M2/S2...SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON.
.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/24/2007
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