SWODY2
SPC AC 240545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TO A POSITION OVER AR/MO BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
BAROTROPIC CYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG WLY FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST AND NRN PLAINS
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER THE LOW MORE EWD BEFORE THE SYSTEM OPENS
UP BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE SEWD ACROSS MT AND THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.
..SOUTHEAST...
BROAD ZONE OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW WILL SET UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST NWWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY AND THE STRENGTHENING
ANTICYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST. LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND UPSLOPE FLOW FARTHER
INLAND WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
MORE FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING...AND GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS...MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE WEDGE AND COASTAL FRONTS FORECAST TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CAROLINAS. A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS IN
PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR
THESE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LOCATION AND
STRENGTH...IT IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE EVEN LOW SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES.
.CARBIN.. 10/24/2007
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