Wednesday, October 24, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240543
SWODY1
SPC AC 240540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER MS VALLEY
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SLIGHTLY EWD TODAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
TOWARD THE WNW TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEDGE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD IN LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE NERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

..CAROLINAS/SRN VA...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE GA COAST BY MID-LATE
MORNING...WHILE FARTHER N...THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS SC/NC REACHING CENTRAL NC TO ERN SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION TODAY. THUS...DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT E OF THE COLD FRONT AND S OF THE WEDGE FRONT. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. THE MOIST
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND/
OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

..FL...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING/STRONGER INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AND SRN FL TODAY AHEAD OF THE
EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONGER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGGING THE
FRONT AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TODAY.
DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...7-8
C/KM LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.PETERS/GRAMS.. 10/24/2007

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