SWODY1
SPC AC 250045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SERN VA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS FROM SERN VA INTO N CNTRL NC WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWWD INTO NWRN GA. A
COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT FROM ERN SC NWD INTO N CNTRL NC WHERE IT
INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT. EVENING DATA SHOW A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WARM SECTOR WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1200 J/KG AND MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN MS IS LARGELY EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN
NATURE AND WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH RESULTING MEDIOCRE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR. UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS
ADVANCING NWD WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST OR
TWO THIS EVENING.
.DIAL.. 10/25/2007
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