SWODY1
SPC AC 241233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN VA/CAROLINAS INTO FL...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD OFF THE GA COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND SEWD ACROSS ALL BUT SERN FL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. NRN
END OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN AND PART OF
CENTRAL SC/NC TO THE ENE OF SURFACE LOW PERSISTING OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AS UPPER LOW HOLDS OVER MS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS OUTRUN STRONGEST SLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND VWPS INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING.
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT E OF THE COLD FRONT AND S OF THE WEDGE FRONT.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES
TODAY...DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...
WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY.
THE MOIST AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO. FARTHER SOUTH INTO FL...STRONGER
HEATING WITHIN RICH MOISTURE SHOULD FOSTER SLIGHTLY HIGHER MLCAPE
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAKER
THAN OVER THE CAROLINAS. HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT 7-8 C/KM LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.EVANS/BRIGHT.. 10/24/2007
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