SWODY2
SPC AC 301706
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NERN U.S./COASTAL NC...
12Z NAM/GFS BOTH AGREE THAT OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
FORCED TO EJECT NEWD AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...SWD INTO THE DELMARVA BY 18Z...THEN
NEAR THE NC COAST BY 00Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WITH STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR/JUST BEHIND
THE WIND SHIFT. SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUGGEST DEEP ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IT APPEARS ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THAN ORGANIZED. EVEN SO...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARC ACROSS NC
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AS SBCAPE WILL LIKELY EXCEED
1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER IF
FORECAST CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH WITHIN VEERED SWLY FLOW
THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS REGION.
...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...HOWEVER WEAKENING CONVERGENCE WITHIN DEEPENING WLY FLOW
REGIME DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE.
A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN THE INTERIOR WEST...PRIMARILY
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...FROM THE SRN ROCKIES OF CO/NM INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL MODULATE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2008
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