SWODY1
SPC AC 301606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008
VALID 301630Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
UPPER TROUGH GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SEWD WITH
STRONGER WIND FIELDS REMAINING W OF APPALACHIANS THRU THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR BUF ALONG OH RIVER TO
AR AND WILL MOVE E OF NRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY.
AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE/GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAINS AND WITH HEATING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO W
OF FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF 30KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM
500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
MID AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL BE LIMITED...THUS THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...SRN FL...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PCPN WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OF TROPICAL AIR MASS TO WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT MUCH OF MAINLAND FL.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE KEYS AND IMMEDIATE SERN COAST WHERE
COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE FRONT AND 20KT OF SHEAR ALONG WITH SOME
HEATING WILL CONTINUE A LOW THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO.
..HALES/SMITH.. 09/30/2008
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