SWODY1
SPC AC 301916
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008
VALID 302000Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES THE STRONGEST...MOST FOCUSED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG WRN FRINGE OF CIRRUS CLOUD
CANOPY NEAR THE LEE TROUGH FROM CNTRL NC INTO SERN VA. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN
SO...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT PARTICULARLY INTENSE AS
MLCAPE VALUES...500-1000 J/KG...ARE NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
FARTHER NORTH...STRONGER FORCED FRONTAL SEGMENT IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST ACROSS PA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT GREATER.
IN BOTH CASES LITTLE MORE THAN GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.
...SOUTH FL...
A POCKET OF YET-TO-BE OVERTURNED INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER EXTREME
SOUTH FL WHERE MLCAPE IS ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS PROPAGATING ESEWD
ONSHORE OVER COLLIER/MONROE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA AND UPDRAFT INTERACTION WITH
SEA BREEZE COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT.
...ELSEWHERE...
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH A GRADUAL
EXPANSION OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NV. BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING WILL GREATLY REDUCE COVERAGE BY 03Z.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2008
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