ACUS01 KWNS 230051
SWODY1
SPC AC 230049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL...
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM N TX/ERN
OK/ERN KS NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS -- ALBEIT SUB-SEVERE -- ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS AREA
OF ERN MO. WITH TIME...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL MO
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STORMS POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO PARTS OF IL LATE.
WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL...THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MARGINAL HAIL EVENT OR TWO WARRANTS MAINTAINING 5% HAIL PROBABILITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
...ELSEWHERE...
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS OK/N TX THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS ENEWD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THUS...DIMINISHING SEVERE
THREAT WARRANTS REMOVAL OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA.
STORMS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED ACROSS THE NRN CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA...AND
THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...DEGREE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY AREA.
..GOSS.. 10/23/2012
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