MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2082

ACUS11 KWNS 221505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221504
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-221600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL/ERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221504Z - 221600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ESEWD...PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS SRN/CNTRL/ERN IL.
ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERITY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE PERSISTING
IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN IA/WRN IL...AND AN MCV NOTED OVER NWRN
IL. MOIST LOW-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS NEAR 35-40 KT PER AREA VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA ARE LIKELY MAINTAINING WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY WITH THE SRN MOST EXTENT OF THE LINE OVER
SRN/CNTRL IL. HOWEVER...THE MOIST INFLOW MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK
MID-LEVEL WINDS AND OTHERWISE MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES MAY HINDER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES
THAT CAN DEVELOP.

..DISPIGNA/MEAD.. 10/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 41298899 41338806 40938746 40578753 39838782 39238836
38718894 38318935 38458995 38829020 40328934 41298899

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