MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2083

ACUS11 KWNS 221538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221537
TXZ000-221630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX/LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221537Z - 221630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ISSUANCE OF
A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM INDICATE A MODEST UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING
AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. HAIL APPROACHING
MARGINALLY SVR THRESHOLDS MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING
TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML SAMPLED BY
THE 12Z FORT WORTH RAOB -- I.E. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 8 C/KM
SUPPORTING MUCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG. ALSO...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE EWD-MOVING COLD POOL OWING TO ITS /1/
SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT FROM STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONGER
DEEP SHEAR ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FARTHER W/NW AND /2/ DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER BEING NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. AS SUCH...ANY STRONG/SVR
STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF/SPORADIC.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33569697 32769706 31929811 31639921 31860052 32210048
32480012 33009927 33659840 33769755 33569697

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