ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222048
CAZ000-222245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222048Z - 222245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING OWING TO AREAS OF
INSOLATION BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES FROM 250
TO AROUND 500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE WRN FLANK OF CHANNELED
SLY FLOW THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMIDST 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
MULTICELL TO PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES -- AIDED BY
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT IN SACRAMENTO-AREA VWP DATA -- MAY SUPPORT
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WITH THE STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY/STRONGER DEEP SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE
OVERALL SVR THREAT.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/22/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...STO...
LAT...LON 40702221 39972175 39052127 38402124 38322163 38602193
38962224 39362244 39782261 40222269 40652261 40702221
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