SWODY1
SPC AC 111955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NJ/NYC METRO INTO NEW ENGLAND...
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NJ THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...SHEAR
PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS IN THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ AND NEAR THE NYC METRO
IN AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT. LOCAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF 0-1
KM SHEAR OF 20 KT. LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK REMAINS WARRANTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR A BRIEF-LIVED DAMAGING WIND OR
TORNADO POSSIBILITY. AS STORMS MOVE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NY/FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN WEAKENING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. ALONG THESE LINES...AS OF
1945Z...SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OFF LONG ISLAND /25 S JFK/ SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
HAVE BEEN COMMON SINCE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH
MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST
TX/SOUTHEAST NM. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF 55-65 F SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER WESTERN TX
INTO SOUTHEAST NM...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTIVE OF
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY...PRIMARY
WEAKNESSES FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE THE MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /30 KT/ AND THE WEAKENING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL IMPULSES DAMPEN OUT.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE LIMITED TO THE 40S F AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...LATEST DETERMINISTIC/SREF GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF NORTHWEST KS LATER TONIGHT /PRIMARILY AFTER 03Z/.
THIS APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE NOSE OF A 35+ KT SLY LLJ AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AREA INDICATE MUCAPE MAY REACH 1000 J/KG WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT.
.GUYER/PETERS.. 10/11/2007
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