SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112134
TXZ000-NMZ000-112330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST/SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112134Z - 112330Z
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TX AND FAR EASTERN NM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...IN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM NEAR/WEST OF LUBBOCK
TO MIDLAND/FORT STOCKTON AND THE BIG BEND AREA. EVEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING OVER CENTRAL TX...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LEE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN NM THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AMPLE INSOLATION AND 55-63 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LUBBOCK/MIDLAND IMPLY
AROUND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK...WITH TIME...SOME POTENTIAL
WOULD EXIST FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO EVOLVE VIA EXPANDING COLD
POOLS/FORWARD PROPAGATION AS STORMS PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
.GUYER.. 10/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
34360252 32740089 30650035 29940231 30400420 32330439
33980361
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