SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112020
NYZ000-112145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112020Z - 112145Z
NARROW WEDGE OF INSTABILITY HAS SURGED NWD TOWARD SRN PORTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT. ONE
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL JUST SSE OF JFK FINALLY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WITHIN
SUSTAINED NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THOUGH OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS FAVORED WARM FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
.DARROW.. 10/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...
40537391 40947359 41187228 40977177 40487310
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