SWODY2
SPC AC 111714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE ESEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SWRN STATES ON
FRIDAY. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC/LOWER
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH ALONG ERN STATES. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SRN EXTENT OF CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WHILE LEE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED IN THE HIGH
PLAINS BENEATH BROAD ZONE OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT.
..SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AREA...
DESPITE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN
GULF OF MEXICO...MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD
ALONG SWRN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE RIDGE. THIS AXIS OF
NARROW MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60/ SHOULD REACH NWD INTO SWRN KS...GIVEN EWD SHIFT OF SURFACE HIGH.
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AXIS OF MUCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
AT 12Z FRIDAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NRN OK
WITHIN SEWD MOVING ACTIVITY DISCUSSED IN DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
GIVEN DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT ACTIVITY...IF IT DEVELOPS...WILL BE
ISOLATED GIVEN LACK FOR STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
MAINLY IN KS. HERE...INCREASING DESTABILIZATION AND WAA ALONG NOSE
OF VEERING NOCTURNAL LLJ BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
SUGGESTS HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
.PETERS.. 10/11/2007
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