DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230517
SWODY1
SPC AC 230515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PROSPECT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME
ACROSS THE CONUS SUNDAY AS DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES SEWD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SRN FL PENINSULA BEFORE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED INTO THE STRAITS AND A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM SRN
KS INTO AR WHERE LLJ WILL IMPINGE ON RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE.

ACROSS THE WRN U.S...STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM ID INTO UT
WHERE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER
LOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS AND WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION DEVELOPS WILL BE TOO SHALLOW/WEAK
TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
DISCHARGE.

..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/23/2012

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