WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 409

WWUS20 KWNS 312207
SEL9
SPC WW 312207
NMZ000-TXZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GUADALUPE PASS TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...WW 408...

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE NWWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. WITH MLCAPE AOA
2500 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF BRN SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE E/NE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL
DAMAGING WINDS ARE PRIMARY THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.

...HALES

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