SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312007
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-312200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH / NW PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 312007Z - 312200Z
SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LVL
CONFLUENCE MARKED BY A REGION OF TCU EXTENDING FROM NEAR CMH NNE TO
NEAR CLE. AN ADDITIONAL CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE FROM CLE INTO NW PA.
DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY COOL MID
LVL TEMPS /AROUND MINUS 12C AT 500 MB/ HAVE RESULTED IN SIZABLE
SBCAPE ACROSS REGION...WITH VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD
FORM/INCREASE ALONG BOTH CONFLUENCE ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AS STRONG...NEGATIVE TILT UPR MS VORT LOBE PIVOTS NE ACROSS WI/LK
MI. BUT CONTINUED HEATING/LOW LVL UPLIFT ALONG CONFLUENCE
AXES...COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WSWLY MID LVL FLOW ON SERN
EXTENSION OF UPR IMPULSE...SUGGEST THAT SETUP MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WIND. WHILE THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ONLY LOOSELY-ORGANIZED...STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL CLUSTERS AND...GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...MAY REQUIRE A WW LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF NRN OH/NW
PA.
..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 41657928 41018039 40248136 39958243 40978218 41648153
42087956 41657928
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment