SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311700
MIZ000-WIZ000-311930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311700Z - 311930Z
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WRN ONT THROUGH WRN WI INTO ERN IA. THE FRONT IS MOVING ENE
AT ABOUT 30 KT AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN UPR MI THROUGH CNTRL WI
INTO FAR ERN IA BY EARLY AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RADAR AND VWP
DATA SHOW A LOW LVL WIND SHIFT LINE LEFT OVER FROM LAST EVENINGS MCS
IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB. THIS LINE IS JUST NOW CROSSING LK MI...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED AS THE COLD FRONT.
FINALLY...IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
WIND SHIFT LINE...TCU ARE GROWING OVER THE NRN HALF OF LWR MI.
ATTM...WATER IMAGERY AND PROFILER/VWP DATA SHOW A STRONG N-S
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CNTRL MN BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. THIS IMPULSE...MARKED BY AN 80 KT 500 MB JET STREAK ...SHOULD
ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MI LATER TODAY WHILE THE PARENT UPR
LOW EDGES MORE SLOWLY ENE FROM MB INTO ONT.
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SFC HEATING...LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE EXPECTED TO FOSTER RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THE
WIND SHIFT LINE...AND WITHIN THE TCU FIELD. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS
INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING SQLNS. EMBEDDED BOWING
STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS IN THE SQLNS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY DMGG WIND...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
TORNADOES.
..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...
LAT...LON 44059036 45549029 46669035 47258982 47408713 46388392
45278304 44158353 43458536 43658933 44059036
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