SWODY1
SPC AC 101933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2007
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..MID MS VALLEY...
SWLY LLJ WHICH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD
TONIGHT...LARGELY BECOMING FOCUSED FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE NEWD TRANSPORT OF
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /I.E. MUCAPES OF 400-900 J PER KG FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND
850 MB/ INVOF SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE...ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN STRENGTHENING WAA
REGIME...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
..LOWER MS VALLEY...
A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ IS
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE S/SW OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM ERN OK/THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN MS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS
CONVECTION FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF LA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTHS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TX COAST. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE FROM ERN TX INTO
LA WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND
SUBSEQUENT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
..PACIFIC NW...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
FROM THE NERN PACIFIC EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WA/ID
PNHDL AND NEAR 45N/133W. CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS/MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IN FACT...LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK DATA SHOW A
SERIES OF STRIKES OCCURRING OVER SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE.
AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LEAD SYSTEM FROM ERN WA INTO THE ID PNHDL
INTO WRN MT...AND EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT OVER WRN WA WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE.
.MEAD.. 11/10/2007
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