SWODY1
SPC AC 101621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2007
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF
THE NATION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN FLOW. A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS
SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL SMALL AREAS WILL SEE A RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..CENTRAL MS VALLEY...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM OK/TX INTO IA/WI/IL.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON NOSE OF THIS JET WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT/. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL...NO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET ARE MOVING ONSHORE
OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF WIND FIELDS
AND RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. AN
EVEN GREATER THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH NEAR 138W
APPROACHES THE COAST.
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WA/ORE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WA/NORTHERN ID/NORTHWEST MT
LATER TODAY. STRONG UVVS AND STRONG COOLING AT MID/UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS REGION. LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED AT BEST.
..LOWER MS VALLEY...
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS NOW IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN
MS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN PARTS OF
THIS REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING ARE WEAK...SUGGESTING ONLY
WEAK ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY IN THIS AREA.
.HART/JEWELL.. 11/10/2007
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