Friday, October 21, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211248
SWODY1
SPC AC 211247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY...PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM SRN MT AND WY EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB
PANHANDLE...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FARTHER S...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT
OVER SRN OK/NRN TX AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD BENEATH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
FROM TAKING PLACE BEFORE 12Z/22.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 10/21/2011

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